Joe Murphy
is a senior survey methodologist with over 17 years of research and project
management experience. Mr. Murphy has extensive experience developing and
applying new technologies and modes of communication to improve the quality,
relevance, and efficiency of survey research. His recent work has centered on
the use and analysis of social media to supplement survey data, with a detailed
focus on Twitter. Mr. Murphy also investigates optimal designs for multi-mode
data collection platforms, data visualization, crowdsourcing, and social
research in virtual worlds. Mr. Murphy is a demographer by training and survey
methodologist by practice. His significant research experience includes the
substantive topics of energy, hospitals and health care, and substance use and
mental health. Mr. Murphy is also a proficient SAS programmer, experienced in
the analysis and manipulation of large, complex data sets. @joejohnmurphy
1.
Twitter is like a giant
opt-in survey with one question.
Twitter started in 2006 with a simple
prompt for its users: “what are you doing?” From a survey methodologist’s perspective, this isn’t really optimal question design. How people actually use Twitter is so varied,
there might as well be no question
at all. We aren’t used to working
with answers to a question
no one asked, and Twitter is a good example of what has been described as "organic data" – it just appears without our having designed for it. Tweets are limited to 140 characters in length. Pretty short, but a Tweet can capture a lot of information, and include links to other websites, photos,
videos, and conversations.
2.
Twitter is massive.
Every day, half a billion
Tweets are posted.
Half a billion! That means by the time you finish reading
this, there will be approximately one million
new Tweets. And the pace is only growing.
With Twitter’s application programming interface (API) you can pull from a random
1% of Tweets. To get at all Tweets, or the Firehose (100% of Tweets), you need to go through one of a few vendor and for a fee, though the Library of Congress is working on providing access in the future.
3.
Twitter is increasingly popular on mobile
devices like smartphones
and tablets.
You’ll see people tweeting at events, as news is happening right in front of them, or where you don’t really expect or want to see them tweeting,
like while they’re driving. Many use Twitter on mobile devices with another screen on at the same time. That’s called multiscreening. Like when people tweet while watching television in a backchannel discussion with friends
and fans of their favourite
shows.
4.
The user-base is large, but it doesn’t
exactly reflect the general population.
It would be kind of weird it
if did, honestly. There
are surely many factors
that influence the
likelihood of adoption and wouldn’t it be surprising if we saw no differences by demographics? The Pew Research Center estimates 16% of online
Americans now use Twitter, and about half of those
do so on a typical
day. Users are younger, more urban, and disproportionately black non-His- panic compared to the general
population. This is interesting when thinking about
new approaches for sometimes hard-to- reach populations.
5.
It is made up of more than just people.
Twitter is not cleanly defined with one account per person or even just one person
behind every account.
Some people have multiple accounts
and some accounts
are inactive. Groups
and organizations use Twitter to promote products
and inform followers. They can purchase
“promoted Tweets” that show up in users’ streams like a commercial. And watch out for robots! Some soft- ware applications run automated tasks
to query or Retweet con- tent making it extra challenging when trying to interpret the data.
6.
There are research
applications beyond trying to sup- plant survey
estimates.
Think about the survey
lifecycle and where
there may be needs for a large,
cheap, timely source
of data on behaviours and opinions or a standing
network of users to provide
information. In the design phase of a survey, can we use Twitter to help identify items to include? Can we identify
and recruit subjects
for a study using Twitter? How about a diary study when we need
a more continuous data collection and want to let people
work with a system they know instead
of trying to train them to do something unfamiliar? Can Twitter be used to disseminate study results? What about network analysis? Is there information that can be gleaned
from someone’s network of friends and followers, or the spread of tweets from one (or few) users to many? We often think of public opinion as characterizing sentiment at a specific
place and time, but are there insights
to be had from Twitter on opinion formation and influence?
7.
Twitter is cheap and fast, but making sense of it may not be.
What’s
the unit of analysis? Can we apply or adapt the total
survey error framework when looking at Twitter? What does it
mean
when someone tweets
as opposed to gives a response in a survey? Beyond demographics, how do Twitter
users differ from other populations? How can we account
for Twitter’s exponential growth when analysing the data? The best answer
to each right now is “it depends” or “more research
is needed.” We need a more
solid understanding and some common
metrics as we look to use Twitter for research. Work on this front is beginning but has a long way to go.
8.
Naïve and general
text mining methods
for tweets can be
severely lacking in quality.
The brevity of tweets, inclusion
of misnomers, misspellings, slang, and sarcasm
make sentiment analysis
a real challenge. We’ve found the off-the-shelf systems pretty bad and inconsistent when coding sentiment
on tweets. If you’re going to do
automated sentiment analysis,
be sure to account for nuances of your topic or population
as much as possible and have a human coding component for validation. One approach we’ve found to be promising
is to use crowdsourcing for human coding of tweet content.
9.
Beware of the curse of Big Data and the file cabinet effect.
Searching for patterns
in trillions of data points, you’re bound to find coincidences with no predictive
power or that can’t be replicated. The file cabinet effect is when researchers publish exciting
results about Twitter but hide away their null or negative findings.
10.
Surveys aren’t perfect
either.
Surveys are getting harder to complete with issues like declining response rates and reduced
landline coverage. Twitter isn’t a fix-all but it may be able to fill some gaps. It’ll take some focused study and creative thinking
to get there.
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Twitter, with its real-time, public nature, offers a unique lens into public opinion and behavior. For survey researchers, it's a potential goldmine of data and insights.
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Why Twitter Matters for Survey Researchers
Real-time Sentiment Analysis: Twitter allows for rapid assessment of public opinion on current events, products, or brands. This can inform survey question development and provide a baseline for comparison.
Identifying Emerging Trends: By monitoring Twitter, researchers can identify emerging trends and topics of interest before they become mainstream. This helps in staying ahead of the curve for survey topics.
Understanding Target Audiences: Twitter offers a glimpse into the language, values, and concerns of specific demographics, helping researchers tailor survey questions and sampling strategies.
Recruitment and Panel Building: Twitter can be a valuable tool for recruiting survey participants, especially for hard-to-reach populations.
Data Triangulation: Combining Twitter data with traditional survey data can provide a richer understanding of research topics.
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