Tuesday, 16 January 2018

Tapping Into Advertising Data for Studying International Migration

Ingmar Weber is the Research Director of the Social Computing Group at the Qatar Computing Research Institute (QCRI). As an undergraduate Ingmar studied mathematics at Cambridge University, before pursuing a PhD at the Max-Planck Institute for Computer Science. He subsequently held positions at the Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne and Yahoo Research Barcelona. In his interdisciplinary research, he applies computational methods to large amounts of online data from social media and other sources to study human behaviour at scale. Particular topics of interest include quantifying international migration using digital methods and other data for development projects. He has published over 100 peer-reviewed articles and his work is frequently featured in popular press  Since 2016 he has been selected as an ACM Distinguished Speaker.

International migration is one of the key drivers of demographic change. However, official statistics on “stocks of migrants”, i.e. how many people with origin country X are residing in country Y, are often unreliable. Reasons for this include the free movement of EU nationals within the EU, as well as generally inadequate census and civil registration systems for many developing countries.

Work done by Emilio Zagheni, Krishna Gummadi and myself tries to address some of the shortcomings of traditional methods to create migration statistics by tapping into a new kind of data: audience estimates provided by Facebook.

Facebook and other internet giants collect a rich data set on their users to be able to serve more targeted and more relevant advertising to their users. The data collected includes user self-declared attributes such as age or gender, it includes meta data such as the device or internet connection type used to access the service, it includes third party information such as credit card or voter registration data, and it includes attributes such as topical interests inferred from behavior such as "liking" posts on Facebook or visiting websites with social plugins. See https://www.cision.com/us/2017/07/how-to-improve-social-media-targeting/ for a good list of available targeting options on Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn and Snapchat.
 
The detailed users profiles are generally not available to researchers outside the companies. However, aggregate and anonymized data is shared with potential advertisers in the form of audience estimates. Basically, Facebook and other social networks provide advertisers with information on "how many users match criteria X". For example, to help with planning an advertising campaign, an advertiser could inquire "how many monthly active Facebook users are married, male German expats aged 30-50 living in Qatar"? Answer: 120 (as of Dec 20, 2017).

This type of real-time digital census over Facebook's could potentially be of value to augment existing population estimates, in particular for countries where official statistics are unreliable or outdated. However, due to selection biases and an estimated 13% of duplicate or fake accounts it is clear that using this data set as a simplistic enumeration tool for the whole population will not give accurate results. See https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/sep/07/facebook-claims-it-can-reach-more-people-than-actually-exist-in-uk-us-and-other-countries for more indications of shortcomings of the data.

In our own research, we do not use the raw advertising audience estimates as the final answer. Rather we treat it as one of potentially many input signals for an estimation task of the kind "how many Germans are living in Qatar today"? As long as the biases in the underlying data are either (i) uniform, e.g. 13% of duplicate or fake Facebook accounts for all countries, or (ii) systematic, e.g. Western Europeans are always less likely to be on Facebook compared to Arab nationals, an appropriately fitted model can account for and correct such biases.

In our paper “Leveraging Facebook'sAdvertising Platform to Monitor Stocks of Migrants”, Emilio, Krishna Gummadi and I show the feasibility of this approach to derive stocks of migrants across different US states and around the world. Concretely, we show that it is indeed possible to build models to make out-of-sample predictions on how many people from a certain origin country are residing in a particular US state. Similarly, it is possible to predict the percentage of expats out of the whole population for countries around the globe.

Potentially, the Facebook audience estimates could also give estimates for stocks of migrants at the sub-national and even the sub-city level. To illustrate this, Matheus Araujo, Michael Aupetit, Yelena Mejova and myself created a data visualization for the Facebook data for Doha: http://fb-doha.qcri.org.

As an example, this shows a density map of Nepali expats across Doha, with the highest density in the Industrial Area. The tool also shows that Nepali expats in Doha are predominantly male (93%) and are Android users (94%). Contrast this to the same map for Western expats with the highest densities in West Bay and the Pearl. Western expats are more gender balanced (44% female) and more likely to own iPhones (56%).  A similar visualization for New York City can be explored at http://fb-nyc.qcri.org [Usage info for the two data visualizations: Select several filters on the left to drill down to smaller populations by nationality, gender or other criteria. Click a selection again to de-select and revert to the whole category such as all nationalities or all genders.]

Given Facebook’s global reach of 2.1B monthly active users we believe there is a lot of potential in using this data source to support global development efforts, in particular given its easy accessibility through official APIs. At the same time, no single data source is a cure-all and many have complementary strengths. Satellite data has truly global reach and can give estimates of population densities but satellite data will never reveal the nationality or gender of earthlings. Call detail records (CDR, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Call_detail_record) are great for studying dynamic changes in population density, but there are limitations for monitoring international migration as people often change their SIM cards once they move.

I’m truly optimistic that as Digital Demography advances and matures as a field and as researchers start to work collaboratively, combining different data sources, we will see more and more scientific work with real impact on the creation of migration statistics. If you’re interested in how to use new data sources and methodologies to help fill data gaps around the globe, please get in touch by email at: iweber -atsignal - hbku.edu.qa.

 
Relevant slide decks:

Using internet advertising data for studying international migration (https://www.slideshare.net/IngmarWeber/using-internet-advertising-data-for-studying-international-migration)

Digital Demography - WWW'17 Tutorial - Part II (https://www.slideshare.net/IngmarWeber/digital-demography-www17-tutorial-part-ii)

Wrapper libraries to obtain Facebook advertising audience estimates:


Wrapper library in Python (https://github.com/maraujo/pySocialWatcher) by Matheus Araujo (https://sites.google.com/view/matheusaraujo/)

All of my publications are available at https://ingmarweber.de/publications/. Feel free to follow me at https://twitter.com/ingmarweber.

17 comments:

  1. Am attractive knowledgeable and refined proficient CALL GIRLS IN DUBAI. Am your fortune and delight searcher who need to regard you as my own particular beau I cherish what I do especially pretend and helping customers understand their dreams.

    call and whatsapp number +971561616995
    http://dubai-peaches.com/callgirlsindubai.html
    https://www.scoop.it/t/dubai-escorts-by-anjalimodel9
    https://vk.com/dubaiescorts.verified

    ReplyDelete
  2. I offer unrushed administrations and anticipate meeting my customers more than once.The way that you need to return is the best manual for how great a period we had CALL GIRLS IN DUBAI

    call and whatsapp number +971561616995
    http://dubaiescort-verified.com/callgirlsindubai.html
    https://www.scoop.it/t/dubai-escorts-by-anjalimodel9
    https://vk.com/dubaiescorts.verified

    ReplyDelete
  3. I Handsome Men, I am from Korea and have full body, full tits and full ass, for your fulfillment and joy. I am very much experienced in caring for men of all nationalities and meeting every one of their necessities. just checkout CALL GIRLS IN DUBAI

    call and whatsapp number +971561616995
    http://dubaiescorts-verified.com/callgirlsindubai.html
    https://www.scoop.it/t/dubai-escorts-by-anjalimodel9
    https://vk.com/dubaiescorts.verified

    ReplyDelete
  4. I can do french kissing, cum in mouth, cum on body, a wide range of oral, every single traditional position of adoration making, butt-centric, brilliant shower, dark colored shower, foot obsession, body revere, punishing, control, knead, Nuru back rub, and a whole lot more. on the off chance that you are need CALL GIRLS IN DUBAI for the best upbeat endings.

    call and whatsapp number +971561616995
    http://dubaiescorts110.com/callgirlsindubai.html
    https://www.scoop.it/t/dubai-escorts-by-anjalimodel9
    https://vk.com/dubaiescorts.verified

    ReplyDelete
  5. hi am kim, call me for sex and massage,arabian sex,blowjob, anal sex, 69 position, INCALLS and OUTCALLS....CALL GIRLS IN DUBAI for my location

    call and whatsapp number +971561616995
    http://www.escortsdubai110.com/callgirlsindubai.html
    https://www.scoop.it/t/dubai-escorts-by-anjalimodel9
    https://vk.com/dubaiescorts.verified

    ReplyDelete
  6. I provide Entertainment and Peak sex to my friends who calls me in the night. I am available all the time for your services. If you want to meet me come on CALL GIRLS IN DUBAI. I am available 24/7 for you.

    call and whatsapp number +971561616995
    http://independent-escorts-girls.com/
    https://www.scoop.it/t/dubai-escorts-by-anjalimodel9
    https://vk.com/dubaiescorts.verified

    ReplyDelete
  7. My past encounters with various man of honor was exceptionally pleasant and in future I need CALL GIRLS IN DUBAI of his word with an amazing identity and positive outlook. I like individuals who regard others since I am somewhat passionate.

    call and whatsapp number +971561616995
    http://www.dubaihighescorts.com/
    https://www.scoop.it/t/dubai-escorts-by-anjalimodel9
    https://vk.com/dubaiescorts.verified

    ReplyDelete
  8. I dressed myself according to my mood and also in which event you invite me. CALL GIRLS IN DUBAI gentlemen as they want to have such a exalted seek and i am one of the best selection of their requirement .

    call and whatsapp number +971561616995
    http://escort19.com/
    https://www.scoop.it/t/dubai-escorts-by-anjalimodel9
    https://vk.com/dubaiescorts.verified

    ReplyDelete
  9. I am fair aesthetic girl with sexy body 34-28-32 I consider a special care of my body, and polished it to make more and more attractive and see this CALL GIRLS IN DUBAI

    call and whatsapp number 00971522909500
    http://dubaimodels.co/callgirlsindubai.html
    https://www.scoop.it/t/dubai-escorts-by-anjalimodel9
    https://vk.com/dubaiescorts.verified

    ReplyDelete
  10. We have Best Range of Top Dubai Escorts in Affordable Rates Your Call Will Not going to be Waste of Time. Call OR Visit Our site for Details.

    Call & Whatsapp: +971561616995
    Visit: http://dubai-peaches.com/dubaiescorts.html
    Scoop.it: dubai-escorts
    VK: dubaiescorts.verified

    ReplyDelete
  11. We have the REAL DEAL with Hot Dubai Model Escorts with REAL PICS so there will be NO REGRETS we will do our best to satisfy your dreams and transform them into reality! We give an unrushed benefit.

    Call us: +971561616995
    Visit: http://dubaiescorts-ax.com/dubaiescorts.html
    Scoop.it: dubai-escorts
    VK: dubaiescorts.verified

    ReplyDelete
  12. My partner and I absolutely love your blog and find most of your post's to be just what I'm looking for. Do you offer guest writers to write content for yourself? I wouldn't mind composing a post or elaborating on a number of the subjects you write with regards to here. Again, awesome blog! 廣告

    ReplyDelete
  13. I together with my friends ended up studying the excellent solutions on your web page and then all of a sudden developed an awful feeling I never thanked the web blog owner for them. These people were definitely as a consequence glad to read all of them and have seriously been enjoying these things. We appreciate you really being so kind and also for finding varieties of high-quality topics millions of individuals are really desirous to learn about. My very own sincere apologies for not saying thanks to sooner..網上廣告

    ReplyDelete
  14. Social media management tools are your best friends when integrating social media into your marketing strategy.
    And provide tips and guides to help you choose the best social media management tool for your small business.
    http://bit.ly/2HDkBFz

    ReplyDelete